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☆ Bank of America lays out the exact scenario that could finally pop the stock market's AI bubble
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Joe Ciolli | Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America says the ongoing "anything but bonds" bull market has led to a very top-heavy stock market. The firm is watching real 10-year yields and credit spreads for signals of when that AI-led rally could end. BofA says higher yields and tighter spreads could sound recession alarms and spur a stock sell-off. The key piece is the cohort of mega-cap tech companies that have long dominated stock-market performance, largely because of their affiliation with AI. In the meantime, if you subscribe to BofA's view, you should be watching the 10-year real yield for a signal of when any such downturn is coming.

Persons: BofA, —, YCharts There's Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft

☆ Mark Zuckerberg overtakes Elon Musk as the world's 3rd-richest person as their companies' stocks go in opposite directions
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mark Zuckerberg has overtaken Elon Musk as the world's third-richest person, with a $175 billion fortune. Zuckerberg has gained $47 billion in wealth this year while Musk has lost $55 billion, according to data from Bloomberg. Mark Zuckerberg had a net worth of $175 billion as of Wednesday, just slightly overtaking Musk's net worth of $174 billion. Year-to-date, Zuckerberg has added $47.3 billion to his net worth while Musk has seen his net worth decline by $55.2 billion. Related storyMusk is ahead of Bill Gates' $149 billion fortune, while Zuckerberg is behind Jeff Bezos' $203 billion fortune and Bernard Arnault's $221 billion net worth.

Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Zuckerberg, Musk, —, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Bernard Arnault's Organizations: Bloomberg, Meta, Service, Tesla, Facebook, SpaceX

☆ An even better way to play a potential small-cap stock breakout, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Todd Gordon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Is the breakout from resistance likely and should you consider allocating exposure to this basket of 2000 small capitalization stocks? I think the breakout should occur, but I don't think we should increase exposure to the Russell 2000 for two reasons. Ideally the rotation was going to carry through into the upper-right green quadrant indicating confirmed outperformance relative to the S & P 500. I'm not saying we shun small caps all together and continue to focus on the large caps. We need to focus on fundamentally sound small cap companies and we can do so through the Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF) .

Persons: Russell, Powell, Gordon, POWL Organizations: Federal Reserve, Powell Industries, Edge, Inside Edge Capital Management

☆ It's been 2 years since the Nasdaq hit a record and it's gone nowhere since
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The loudest investor chatter for months has insisted the heavyweights of the Nasdaq have been everything to the market in 2023. Sunday is the second anniversary of the all-time closing high in both the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indexes, which remain 12% and 4 % underwater even after their monster gains in recent months. It's relatively rare for the Nasdaq 100 – the most easily investable part of the Nasdaq and the one most reflective of the mega-cap dominance – to enter a two-year downturn. Only three of the Big Seven have outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over the past two years – Apple, Nvidia and Microsoft — while Meta Platforms has kept pace and Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla have lagged. Friday showed signs of outright rotation, the Russell 2000 up 1.3% versus a flat Nasdaq 100.

Persons: Invesco, Scott Chronert, we've, I've, –, Chronert, Apple's, What's, Berkshire Hathaway, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Russell, disinflation Organizations: Nasdaq, Sunday, QQQ, Citi, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire, Fed Locations: lockstep, Berkshire, Whereto

☆ 2 recession indicators are close to flashing. Here's why investors can still rest easy for now.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Two recession indicators are on the verge of flashing as the unemployment rate ticks higher and the yield curve uninverts. "With labor supply increasing, we're not sure the Sahm rule, even if it triggers, would really be indicative of a recession." AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two recession indicators that are on the verge of flashing, but even if they do flash stock market investors can rest easy. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, up 50 basis points from its cycle low of 3.4% in April. "That's why a small increase in the unemployment rate can be really bad news, because it keeps going," she explained.

Persons: we're, —, Carson, Sonu Varghese, Sahm, Claudia Sahm, Varghese Organizations: Service, CNBC, Treasury

☆ The Dow's transportation index is ringing alarm bells about the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market. Transportation stocks are viewed as a leading indicator because they point to the movement of goods around the country. AdvertisementAdvertisementA steady decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market and its chances to stage a year-end rally. If companies are seeing a slowdown in growth and their stock prices fall, it could be a grim warning for the rest of the economy and stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd if the latter happens, crucial support levels would be broken and investors' highly anticipated year-end rally in the stock market, partly explained by bullish seasonals, would be on thin ice.

Persons: —, Hunt, Dow Jones, bullish seasonals, J.B, Shelley Simpson, Robert Isom, We're, Isom, Joe Hinrichs, Hinrich, Dow, Manuel Blay, TheDowTheory.com, Dow Industrials Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Transportation, United Airlines, American Airlines, CSX Transportation, Dow, Industrial, CNBC, CSX Locations: Israel

☆ US oil production just hit an all-time high. 'Millions of people will die,' if this trend continues, a Stanford climate scientist said.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Seth Borenstein | Associated Press | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

US oil production reached an all-time high last week at 13.2 million barrels per day. If this trend continues, "millions of people will die," Stanford climate scientist Rob Jackson said. And it conflicts with oft-repeated Republican talking points of a Biden "war on American energy." Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now. US oil production reached an all time high recently.

Persons: Biden, Rob Jackson, Bill Hare, Hare, John Sterman, Jackson, Samantha Gross, Gross, Stanford's Jackson, Joe Biden, Susan Walsh Biden's, Jared Bernstein, Bernstein, They've, Joshua Boak Organizations: Service, United, Biden, U.S . Department of Energy's Energy, Administration, United Nations, United Arab Emirates, Exxon, Mobil, Cote d'Ivorie, Climate Interactive, Stanford University, Carbon, White, Brookings Institution, Energy, EIA, AP, American Energy, Republican, House Energy, Commerce, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Wildlife Locations: Stanford, United States, Norway, Australia, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Shell, Guyana, Cote, Saudi Arabia, Alaska, Washington ,

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Investors keep buying bond funds amid one of the worst crashes in market history
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The bond market is experiencing one of its worst declines on record after interest rates surged. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur Chart of the Day is from Bank of America, which highlights the painful decline experienced in the bond market over the past few years. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has plunged as much as 47% from its 2020 peak, making the collapse worse than the 1981 bond bear market and on par with some of the worst market crashes in history. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut despite the pain, investors are pouring billions of dollars into bond funds, with high bond yields luring in a fresh wave of buyers. For the rout in the bond market to end — and for all of these bond fund buyers to make money — interest rates need to fall.

Persons: — Organizations: Treasury ETF, Service, Bank of America, Treasury, Federal Reserve, America

☆ Insider Today: Market's crash landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The core question it presents is whether personal AI devices could have the same impact that the iPhone had on the tech industry. Meta's Responsible AI team shrank amid layoffs and restructuring. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021. Yet the team tasked with ensuring that new AI tech was "fair and inclusive" is half the size it was in 2021.

Persons: —, Benjamin Netanyahu, Insider's Matthew Fox, Mohamed El, Matthew, Jerome Powell, hasn't, mavens, Izzy Englander, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Point72, Steve Cohen, Phil McCarten, Dave Kotinsky, Shaw, Victor Virgile, Arantza Pena Popo, Bella Hadid, John Lennon, Ben Shelton, Sharon Osbourne, William Hanson, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Hamas, Saturday, Israeli, Citadel, federal, Tech, Peoples, Indian Heritage Locations: Israel, D.E, Cupertino, China, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Hawaii, Alabama, Dakota, Los Angeles, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Wall Street's dream scenario is dead
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Wall Street's vision of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is unraveling. AdvertisementAdvertisementWall Street's dream of a Goldilocks scenario for the stock market and economy is probably dead. Interest rates soared. As painful as inflation and higher interest rates were, the economy remained resilient as consumers held onto their jobs and kept swiping their credit cards. It has to acknowledge that interest rates are now sufficiently restrictive, and decide that it's next monetary policy move isn't an interest rate hike, but rather a pause, and then a cut.

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell, Powell's, Powell, Buckle, Greg Daco, Something's, Kevin O'Leary, we've, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Service, Treasury, Valley Bank, Bloomberg, CNBC Locations: America

☆ Here's why it's so dangerous for Wall Street to bet against the American consumer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," Ned Davis Research said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe American consumer has defied expectations over the past year as spending remains resilient, but Wall Street continues to anticipate a recession. The dynamic highlights why it's dangerous to bet against the American consumer, according to a Friday note from Ned Davis Research. YChartsMeanwhile, rising interest rates only impacts new loans or refinancings, and just over 75% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 5%. Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," NDR concluded.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Bank of America's, NDR

☆ The one thing in markets everyone should be watching
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The 10-Year US Treasury yield is arguably the most important thing to watch right now for investors. The 10-Year yield has soared to levels not seen since 2007, and that's having a big impact on stock prices. Here's what you need to know about what bond yields are doing to markets and the economy. Rising bond yields are also thrashing the bond market, as bond prices fall when yields rise. AdvertisementAdvertisementHigher interest rates also means higher credit card rates, leading to a rise in delinquencies in recent months.

Persons: —, It's, Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Bill Gross, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Treasury, Service, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Pershing, CNBC Locations: delinquencies

☆ A millionaire who retired at 34 made over $7,000 in passive income in one month from stocks and bonds. He explains how he built a $2.9 million account that pays his expenses while it continues to grow
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

For 13 years, he invested at least 50% of his salary to grow his retirement portfolio. The latter portion allows him to access his retirement income before the age of 59 and a half without incurring a 10% penalty. The stock exposure in that account is mainly through the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), where he has about $1 million invested. This roughly means you need to have $1 million invested into the index to earn $15,400. Therefore, only 1% of his brokerage portfolio is allocated to a few individual tech stocks.

Persons: Sam Dogen, Goldman Sachs, He'd, Dogen, he's, He's, I've Organizations: Credit Suisse, Goldman, Wealth, Fidelity, Treasury Locations: New York City, San Francisco, IVV

☆ Apple stock has lost $191 billion in market cap over 2 days on fears of China's crackdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Apple stock has lost about $191 billion in market capitalization over the last two days. Apple stock declined as much as 5.1% on Thursday before paring some of its losses. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The losses come after China banned iPhone use for government officials while at work, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd Goldman Sachs strategists published a note on Monday that the tech titan is poised to stay dominant moving forward.

Persons: paring, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Bloomberg, Apple, European Commission, Wednesday, Meta, Microsoft Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Europe, Beijing

REUTERS/Robert Galbraith/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsORLANDO, Florida, Aug 30 (Reuters) - To buy back, or not to buy back. The highest U.S. interest rates in over 20 years coupled with Wall Street's remarkable resilience has brought an old boardroom dilemma into sharp focus: are share buybacks worth it? Ditto Apple, Chevron, Alphabet and Wells Fargo, which this year have announced buybacks of $90 billion, $75 billion, $70 billion and $30 billion, respectively. Figures from Refinitiv show that S&P 500 companies spent more than $6 trillion on stock buybacks in the decade through 2022. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Robert Galbraith, Joe Kleven, Ali Ragih, Nicholas Guest, Kothari, Parth Venkat, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Nvidia, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Chevron, Mega Tech, Marathon Petroleum, VerityData, Reuters, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Corporate, Cornell University, S.P, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Alabama, Thomson, & ' $ Locations: Santa Clara , California, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Wells, YCharts, VerityData, U.S, underperformed

☆ Bitcoin surges after court clears the way for Grayscale to turn its crypto trust into an ETF, handing the SEC a defeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin soared 6% on Tuesday after Grayscale won its crypto case against the SEC. Grayscale sued the SEC in 2022 after the agency rejected its application to turn its bitcoin trust into an ETF. The court ruling from the District of Columbia Court of Appeals could pave the way for other bitcoin ETFs. The current discount of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to its NAV is about 24%, according to data from YCharts. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust soared more than 17% on Tuesday.

Persons: Bitcoin, Coinbase Organizations: SEC, District of Columbia, Service, Investments, Securities and Exchange Commission, Columbia, BlackRock, Fidelity Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Consumers aren't even close to being tapped out. Here's why, and what that means for the stock market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Most projections for a stock market decline hinge on a weakening US consumer. Bearish investors cite $1 trillion in credit card debt, upcoming student loan payments, and a depletion of excess pandemic savings. But the US consumer has plenty of capacity to spend, and that's great news for the stock market. In reality, US consumers have plenty of firepower left to spend money, grow the economy, and drive the stock market higher. And given that consumption makes up about 70% of GDP, this strength should continue to flow through to the economy and stock market.

Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Mortgage Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Why WeWork may be the next hot meme stock
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Warning investors you company could be on the verge of bankruptcy is not as bad as it sounds in meme-stock world. Companies that have recently warned of imminent bankruptcy have seen their stock prices soar. WeWork is the latest company to enter meme status with a surging stock price despite bad news. This week it saw its stock price soar as much as 162% after it warned investors of its financial troubles. The stock traded up as much as 49% on Friday, but eventually slashed those gains in half to about 20%.

Persons: WeWork, it's Organizations: Companies, Service, GameStop, AMC Entertainment Locations: Wall, Silicon, YCharts

Even taking into account the dotcom bust and market crash following the 1999-2000 cycle, stocks still shone brighter. The average return of a 100% equity portfolio was 12.75%, an all-bond portfolio returned 9.10%, and a 60/40 portfolio generated 11.09% on average. Equities returned around 26% in the year after the Fed stopped tightening, bonds between 6-8%, and a 60/40 portfolio around 18%. Blended together, a 60/40 portfolio generated double-digit returns after five of these six cycles, including 25% in the mid-1990s. No two economic cycles, Fed reaction functions, inflationary dynamics or asset price dynamics are the same.

Persons: Joe Kleven, Kleven, Paul Volcker, Shelly Simpson, Simpson, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, NYSE, Mega Tech, ICE, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel channels Warren Buffett in explaining the problem behind Tesla's epic stock price decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeremy Siegel used a quote from Warren Buffett to explain the problem behind Tesla's epic stock price decline. "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price," Buffett once said. "The problem with Tesla was always the price, and I think that's the bottom line," Siegel said. Tesla stock has erased just over $900 billion in market value over the past year, with the stock price falling more than 70% from its record high. The full Buffett quote Siegel may be referring to is: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price."

☆ Billionaire investor Bill Gross warns of chaos ahead for US housing and bond markets if the Fed keeps pushing up interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The housing and bond markets look particularly vulnerable, Gross added. The former PIMCO investment chief said Tuesday that he's worried that there could be a recession as well as market crises in 2023 if interest rates keep rising. "If interest rates keep going up, we've got more than that," he added. The billionaire investor, famously known as 'bond king', also said that rising interest rates could create turbulence in fixed income markets. "With the yen strengthening as opposed to weakening and interest rates moving a little higher this yen carry trade stands a good chance of being reversed."

☆ Tesla stock's historic decline drags ARK Invest's flagship fund to new 5-year lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla's historic price decline has helped drag ARK Invest's flagship fund to five-year lows. The Ark Innovation ETF fell to its lowest level since August 2017 on Tuesday, while Tesla hit its lowest level since November 2020. Despite steep declines, Cathie Wood is buying more Tesla, and investors are buying more of the ARKK ETF. Tesla stock has wiped out nearly $800 billion in market value since the start of the year, according to data from YCharts. On Tuesday, Tesla stock fell another 5% to hit its lowest level since November 2020.

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